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track record · all ideas, equal-weighted
+31.98%
vs +14.73% S&P 500
3/266/120%
all ideas (equal-weighted)S&P 500+31.98% since inception · 23 ideas (23 active, 0 closed)
The AI Inference Cost Squeeze: How DeepSeek Is Forcing Hyperscalers to Surrender Their Margins
activetechnology·anticipated catalyst·6/11/2026

The AI Inference Cost Squeeze: How DeepSeek Is Forcing Hyperscalers to Surrender Their Margins

-1.06%since publication
Lilly's $2.3 Billion Ajax Bet Signals the Start of a Multi-Year Oncology M&A Spree
activesectoral·anticipated catalyst·6/8/2026

Lilly's $2.3 Billion Ajax Bet Signals the Start of a Multi-Year Oncology M&A Spree

+2.57%since publication
AI Token Costs Are Visible, AI Output Value Is Not—Long Governance Tooling, Short Hyperscalers
activetechnology·mispricing·6/4/2026

AI Token Costs Are Visible, AI Output Value Is Not—Long Governance Tooling, Short Hyperscalers

-7.35%since publication
Pentagon Pulls 4,000 Troops from Poland Days Before Announcement—Europe Defense Posture Quietly Unwinding
activegeopolitics·mispricing·6/1/2026

Pentagon Pulls 4,000 Troops from Poland Days Before Announcement—Europe Defense Posture Quietly Unwinding

+1.99%since publication
If Europe Sanctions Russia's Shadow Fleet, South Korea's Nuclear Shipbuilding and China's VLCC Operators Win—But Only If HD Hyundai Delivers Natrium Reactors on Time
activegeopolitics·conditional·5/28/2026

If Europe Sanctions Russia's Shadow Fleet, South Korea's Nuclear Shipbuilding and China's VLCC Operators Win—But Only If HD Hyundai Delivers Natrium Reactors on Time

-7.28%since publication
The AI Data Center Bottleneck Isn't Chips — It's Power, Cooling, and Contractors
activetechnology·conditional·5/27/2026

The AI Data Center Bottleneck Isn't Chips — It's Power, Cooling, and Contractors

-4.95%since publication
The Container Cartel Indictment Reveals What Markets Missed: Supply Restriction, Not Demand Shock—and Freight Compliance Costs Are Underpriced
activesectoral·mispricing·5/21/2026

The Container Cartel Indictment Reveals What Markets Missed: Supply Restriction, Not Demand Shock—and Freight Compliance Costs Are Underpriced

+9.94%since publication
Canada's West Coast Pipeline Breakthrough: The $49 Billion Mispricing in Energy Logistics
activecommodities·mispricing·5/18/2026

Canada's West Coast Pipeline Breakthrough: The $49 Billion Mispricing in Energy Logistics

-6.57%since publication
The A1B Reactor Lock-In: How a Single Propulsion Decision Handed BWX Technologies and Huntington Ingalls a $78 Billion Nuclear Monopoly
activesectoral·anticipated catalyst·5/18/2026

The A1B Reactor Lock-In: How a Single Propulsion Decision Handed BWX Technologies and Huntington Ingalls a $78 Billion Nuclear Monopoly

+1.61%since publication
Supreme Court Opens Freight Brokers to State Tort Liability — Consolidation Wave Favors Large 3PLs, Specialty Insurers
activesectoral·anticipated catalyst·5/15/2026

Supreme Court Opens Freight Brokers to State Tort Liability — Consolidation Wave Favors Large 3PLs, Specialty Insurers

+6.90%since publication
Hormuz Is Not Closed—It Is Rationed
activegeopolitics·mispricing·5/13/2026

Hormuz Is Not Closed—It Is Rationed

-5.21%since publication
The $7 Billion Leak: How Systematic Insider Trading Corrupted Energy Markets While Peace Talks Stall
activegeopolitics·mispricing·5/11/2026

The $7 Billion Leak: How Systematic Insider Trading Corrupted Energy Markets While Peace Talks Stall

-0.76%since publication
Appalachia's Lithium Windfall Meets Nuclear Renaissance: The Critical Minerals Rerating
activecommodities·anticipated catalyst·5/8/2026

Appalachia's Lithium Windfall Meets Nuclear Renaissance: The Critical Minerals Rerating

-18.64%since publication
China's Rare Earth Stranglehold Mispriced: Long Western Critical Mineral Developers, Short China-Dependent Defense Primes
activecommodities·mispricing·5/4/2026

China's Rare Earth Stranglehold Mispriced: Long Western Critical Mineral Developers, Short China-Dependent Defense Primes

-7.81%since publication
If Thorium MSRs Scale as Distributed Energy Solution, Thorium Fuel Cycle and Molten Salt Supply Chains Win
activetechnology·conditional·4/30/2026

If Thorium MSRs Scale as Distributed Energy Solution, Thorium Fuel Cycle and Molten Salt Supply Chains Win

-11.69%since publication
Pentagon Pivot Mispriced: Long Space-Based Interceptors, AI Defense Contractors; Short Ford-Class Carriers
activegeopolitics·mispricing·4/29/2026

Pentagon Pivot Mispriced: Long Space-Based Interceptors, AI Defense Contractors; Short Ford-Class Carriers

+2.61%since publication
The Strait Reopens While the Market Prices a War That's Already Over
activecommodities·mispricing·4/29/2026

The Strait Reopens While the Market Prices a War That's Already Over

-5.19%since publication
The First In Vivo CRISPR Approval Is Imminent—And the Market Is Mispricing It by 200%
activesectoral·mispricing·4/27/2026

The First In Vivo CRISPR Approval Is Imminent—And the Market Is Mispricing It by 200%

-10.96%since publication
Panama Canal Auction Slots Hit $1M as Hormuz Rerouting Drives Demand
activecommodities·mispricing·4/26/2026

Panama Canal Auction Slots Hit $1M as Hormuz Rerouting Drives Demand

+3.94%since publication
Four April Events That Split Big Pharma Into Winners With Durable Moats and Losers Facing Commoditization
activesectoral·mispricing·4/26/2026

Four April Events That Split Big Pharma Into Winners With Durable Moats and Losers Facing Commoditization

-3.64%since publication
The DOE's '3 by 33' Uranium Squeeze: How Defense Production Act Funding Will Re-Rate US Nuclear Fuel Producers
activecommodities·anticipated catalyst·4/25/2026

The DOE's '3 by 33' Uranium Squeeze: How Defense Production Act Funding Will Re-Rate US Nuclear Fuel Producers

-21.39%since publication
Copper Supply Crunch Mispriced: Long Copper Majors, Fade Base-Metal Diversifieds
activecommodities·mispricing·4/25/2026

Copper Supply Crunch Mispriced: Long Copper Majors, Fade Base-Metal Diversifieds

+9.46%since publication
Hormuz Closure Endgame: Long Energy Logistics, Short Exposed Container Shippers
activegeopolitics·conditional·3/26/2026

Hormuz Closure Endgame: Long Energy Logistics, Short Exposed Container Shippers

+6.88%since publication